A Finnish modelling study estimated that light to moderate drinking 'prevents' around 400 coronary heart disease deaths a year among men aged 30 to 69, about 12 to 14% of observed deaths, while only around 20 are 'caused' by drinking above the estimated optimum. The figures rest on associations between drinking and heart disease, not on trials of alcohol itself.
What it shows: Treat these counts as a what-if, not a measurement: the underlying link between moderate drinking and fewer heart deaths comes from studies that followed people rather than testing on them, so healthier habits among moderate drinkers could explain it. The death tallies were modelled from Finnish survey data on 4,818 people, and the authors themselves put 'prevented' in quote marks.Meta-analysis · J Stud Alcohol